Four Years Later: Just How Big is Google Fiber's Impact?
It has been nearly four years since Google announced Google Fiber, though to date the service remains unavailable in any volume outside of Kansas City. While those totals should ramp up a little next year with launches in Austin and Provo (and a fourth unspecified Western state launch market I keep hearing whispers about for 2014), we're reaching the point where Google has had enough time where we can at least begin to measure Google Fiber's real-world impact.
Those playing along at home of course know Google Fiber was always primarily about lighting a fire under the uncompetitive US broadband market, regardless of suggestions in the tech press that Google Fiber would be a national affair. As Forrester analyst Dan Bieler notes in a piece this week over at Network World, the goal really was to put some much-needed pressure on national incumbents:
Google has also set a very compelling price point of $70 for 1 Gbps among municipal broadband deployments. They've shown that it's possible to navigate bureaucracy to get things done on a city level (though it's possible to argue that's a double edged sword when it comes to things like getting the public to applaud cherry picking). Google Fiber has managed to keep the lack of competition splashed across national headlines for four years, while generating unprecedented interest in a sector most take for granted.
But what about real connectivity to real people, most of whom still pay among the highest prices for the slowest speeds among most developed countries?
While we've seen no limit of "fiber to the press release" announcements (very limited deployments to just a few apartment buildings for PR's sake) from the likes of AT&T and CenturyLink in response to Google Fiber, these efforts are predominately theatrical in nature. Most ISPs sleep pretty soundly knowing that Google Fiber -- or anything like it -- won't be encroaching on their territory anytime soon.
Monopolies and duopolies tend to be negative press proof, especially when the only meaningful impact on 99% of their markets is ethereal in nature.
In the few places incumbents actually do face Google Fiber, they've offered promos and speeds available nowhere else -- so that's good -- even if those promos still don't remotely come close to the $70, 1 Gbps price point, and focus primarily on locking down users into two-year contracts so they can't switch. Such efforts have come hand in hand with ISPs trying to argue that nobody actually needs an inexpensive, ultra-fast connection -- in the hopes you won't notice they offer neither.
But again, what of meaningful Google Fiber expansion down the road to really and truly put pressure on an entrenched duopoly? With Google Fiber only really in portions of Kansas City, Google refuses to reveal subscriber counts or uptake numbers to prevent deflating the PR balloon. One analyst recently estimatedthat the cost of taking Google Fiber nationwide would be $140 billion. Less than half the country? $70 billion.
Neither of those are happening. In fact, most analysts doubt that Google Fiber will ever move past more than a half dozen markets before interest wanes. Despite Google's protestations over the term, Google Fiber is a very expensive experiment designed to generate great press, embarrass un-competitive duopolies, and gather immensely useful data on real-world network operations for as long as Google remains interested.
From that perspective, Google Fiber has proven to be a smashing success. Even if the multi-billion dollar adventure that is Google Fiber only manages to physically touch a few million users, Google's decision to pour napalm on the nation's broadband competition discussion was well-worth the price of admission.
tl;dr: Google Fiber has been absolutely fantastic for the national discourse about the lack of broadband competition, but the actual impact on uncompetitive market pricing and service remains negligible at best.
It has been nearly four years since Google announced Google Fiber, though to date the service remains unavailable in any volume outside of Kansas City. While those totals should ramp up a little next year with launches in Austin and Provo (and a fourth unspecified Western state launch market I keep hearing whispers about for 2014), we're reaching the point where Google has had enough time where we can at least begin to measure Google Fiber's real-world impact.
Those playing along at home of course know Google Fiber was always primarily about lighting a fire under the uncompetitive US broadband market, regardless of suggestions in the tech press that Google Fiber would be a national affair. As Forrester analyst Dan Bieler notes in a piece this week over at Network World, the goal really was to put some much-needed pressure on national incumbents:
quote:But an actual measurement of that impact remains intangible, and the volume of actual competition remains negligible. The real benefit to Google Fiber appears to be that it has, as intended, captured the imagination of a nation underwhelmed with existing connectivity options, while putting pressure on incumbents to at least pretend they're interested in more competitive, cheaper and faster options.
"(Google Fiber is good news because competition increases the pressure on carriers and cable providers to bring true broadband service to more households and businesses, if they want to compete effectively with Google. In my view, it is unlikely that Google fiber will target rural areas, but it’s clearly an interesting option for Google to target higher-income urban areas as well as central business districts."
Google has also set a very compelling price point of $70 for 1 Gbps among municipal broadband deployments. They've shown that it's possible to navigate bureaucracy to get things done on a city level (though it's possible to argue that's a double edged sword when it comes to things like getting the public to applaud cherry picking). Google Fiber has managed to keep the lack of competition splashed across national headlines for four years, while generating unprecedented interest in a sector most take for granted.
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While we've seen no limit of "fiber to the press release" announcements (very limited deployments to just a few apartment buildings for PR's sake) from the likes of AT&T and CenturyLink in response to Google Fiber, these efforts are predominately theatrical in nature. Most ISPs sleep pretty soundly knowing that Google Fiber -- or anything like it -- won't be encroaching on their territory anytime soon.
Monopolies and duopolies tend to be negative press proof, especially when the only meaningful impact on 99% of their markets is ethereal in nature.
In the few places incumbents actually do face Google Fiber, they've offered promos and speeds available nowhere else -- so that's good -- even if those promos still don't remotely come close to the $70, 1 Gbps price point, and focus primarily on locking down users into two-year contracts so they can't switch. Such efforts have come hand in hand with ISPs trying to argue that nobody actually needs an inexpensive, ultra-fast connection -- in the hopes you won't notice they offer neither.
But again, what of meaningful Google Fiber expansion down the road to really and truly put pressure on an entrenched duopoly? With Google Fiber only really in portions of Kansas City, Google refuses to reveal subscriber counts or uptake numbers to prevent deflating the PR balloon. One analyst recently estimatedthat the cost of taking Google Fiber nationwide would be $140 billion. Less than half the country? $70 billion.
Neither of those are happening. In fact, most analysts doubt that Google Fiber will ever move past more than a half dozen markets before interest wanes. Despite Google's protestations over the term, Google Fiber is a very expensive experiment designed to generate great press, embarrass un-competitive duopolies, and gather immensely useful data on real-world network operations for as long as Google remains interested.
From that perspective, Google Fiber has proven to be a smashing success. Even if the multi-billion dollar adventure that is Google Fiber only manages to physically touch a few million users, Google's decision to pour napalm on the nation's broadband competition discussion was well-worth the price of admission.
tl;dr: Google Fiber has been absolutely fantastic for the national discourse about the lack of broadband competition, but the actual impact on uncompetitive market pricing and service remains negligible at best.
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